Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Russian gas flows via Ukraine for last day as transit deal crumbles, price in Europe rises to maximum in a year

 Russia pumped gas on Monday  to European customers via Ukraine for one of the last days before a key transit deal expires at the end of the year, marking the almost complete loss of Russia's once mighty hold over the European gas market.

Supplies of Russian gas via Ukraine are due to stop from the early hours of 1 January after the current five-year deal expires. Kyiv has refused to negotiate a new transit deal as its war against Russia approaches the end of a third year.

Russia and the Soviet Union spent half a century building up a major share of the European gas market, which at its peak stood at 35%, but the war in Ukraine has all but destroyed that business for Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas giant. 

Gas prices in Europe rose to their highest since November 27, 2023, $536 per 1,000 cubic meters during exchange trading, amid expectations that Russian gas transit through Ukraine will cease on January 1, according to data from the London ICE exchange.

The cost of February futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose to more than $536 per 1,000 cubic meters, or 50 euros per MWh (based on the current exchange rate of euro to dollar, prices for ICE are presented in euros per MWh).

Since the beginning of the day the price has risen by more than 4%.

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